Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf163…6221 sports 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$173 (+17%) realized +$168 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%180W / 195L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$79
14 days+$121
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 22% +$79
sports 22% +$44
world 18% +$32
politics 17% −$20
finance 13% +$48
crypto 7% −$35
weather 1% +$2
culture 1% +$1
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +43.6% +29.9% 50% 42% +17.0%
≤30d 243 +23.0% +11.3% 46% 44% +5.3%
≤90d 347 +20.9% +9.4% 46% 45% +6.4%
all 375 +21.4% +9.9% 48% 46% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 46% +5.5%
10% -0.7% 43% -4.6%
15% -10.3% 39% -13.8%
20% -19.1% 37% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses180 / 195
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions73
Markets (closed)375 / 450
History coverage217d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 73 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 69¢ 74¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 92¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 97¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+222%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Panama concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+410%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? No 48¢ 68¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 63¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 15¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$3 (+550%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? No 65¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 12¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+121%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +510%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +483%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $7 +$12 +173%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $41 +$10 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Lea Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +601%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 10 $1 +$2 +216%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 10 $1 +$3 +276%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 10 $1 +$3 +307%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $1 16m
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 16m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY 8¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $4 3h
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $10 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $5 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $13 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $7 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $15 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $16 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $1 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $2 17h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $1 18h
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 BUY No 9¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.85 · official $174.85 (match) · 1060 history records