trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +101% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Aug 15 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Aug 15 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | +47% |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Feb 24 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 30 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 | Jan 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Jan 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | SELL Yes | 25¢ | $2 | 45m |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | BUY Yes | 12¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | BUY Yes | 68¢ | $1 | 474d |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | BUY Yes | 96¢ | $5 | 475d |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY Yes | 97¢ | $5 | 475d |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | BUY Yes | 92¢ | $5 | 476d |
| Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 | BUY Yes | 62¢ | $5 | 499d |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $5 | 499d |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | BUY No | 0¢ | $1 | 507d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +101.2% | +82.0% | 100% | 100% | +82.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +101.2% | +82.0% | 100% | 100% | +82.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +101.2% | +82.0% | 100% | 100% | +82.0% |
| all | 8 | -4.2% | -13.4% | 75% | 25% | -21.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 25% | -21.1% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 25% | -28.7% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 25% | -35.6% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 12% | -41.9% |