Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf160…74b4 politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$1
world 28% −$1
other 21% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage294d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 31 $5 $0 +3%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $2 $0 +20%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $44 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 23h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $39 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records