Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf15f…c75d sports 692 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized −$41 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%368W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$13
crypto 39% +$19
other 7% −$13
world 3% +$1
weather 3% −$23
politics 2% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 +10.6% +0.1% 53% 44% -11.5%
≤30d 669 +3.1% -6.8% 55% 48% -11.8%
≤90d 669 +3.1% -6.8% 55% 48% -11.8%
all 669 +3.1% -6.8% 55% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 48% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 43% -20.2%
15% -23.8% 36% -27.9%
20% -31.3% 29% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses368 / 301
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions23
Markets (closed)669 / 692
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? No 43¢ 87¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $2 $9 +$6 (+278%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 44¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 80¢ 85¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 38¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Down 11¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 51¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 61¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$2 +124%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Set Handicap: Olivieri (-1.5) vs Shevchenko (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +124%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +242%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 7m
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 64¢ $2 1h
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative ele BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 74¢ $4 4h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 68¢ $1 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $0 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $0 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 43¢ $5 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 5¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 49¢ $0 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 85¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.11 · official $83.35 (match) · 1398 history records