Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf15e…6ed6
sports · 265 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses109 / 149
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)258 / 265
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 7 History 258 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $7 $10 +$4 (+56%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 61¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+97%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 76¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5) CA Mineiro 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) CD Cuenca 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? May 31 $15 $0 -3%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5) May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5 May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 +$4 +86%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $4 $0 -11%
Will Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
EC Vitória vs. SC Internacional: Both Teams to Score May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5 May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to Score May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
CD Universidad Católica vs. Barcelona SC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? May 24 $10 +$2 +21%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$4 +121%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) May 21 $5 +$6 +114%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 20 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$4 +197%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Santos FC vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
SC Internacional vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
SC Internacional vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$31
other 40% +$9
politics 9% +$10
crypto 5% −$5
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 24m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 22h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $2 46h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 46h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 7d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 11d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 13d
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 13d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 14d
Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5) BUY CA Mineiro 49¢ $3 17d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 17d
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) BUY CD Cuenca 51¢ $3 17d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 18d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 18d
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 19d
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 19d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $11 19d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 19d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 19d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 20d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 20d
Will Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 20d
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 20d
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 20d
Will CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤30d 69 -35.0% -41.2% 29% 26% -32.1%
≤90d 258 -6.3% -15.3% 42% 41% -12.1%
all 258 -6.3% -15.3% 42% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 41% -12.1%
10% -23.4% 40% -20.5%
15% -30.8% 37% -28.2%
20% -37.6% 35% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.34 · official $42.34 (match) · 575 history records