Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf150…fd43 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%51W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$4
tech 5% $0
sports 1% −$11
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 71 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses51 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage512d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 26? Feb 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 17? Feb 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $3 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 31 $2 $0 -1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $108 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $108 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $108 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $108 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $108 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $108 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $50 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $108 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $108 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $107 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $107 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $107 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $107 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $107 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $107 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $107 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $107 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $107 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $107 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $106 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $106 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $106 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $106 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.62 · official $108.62 (match) · 159 history records