Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf14b…9ef1 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$665 (-41%) realized −$583 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$223
14 days−$223
30 days−$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$425
sports 20% −$328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.5% -44.4% 50% 50% -60.8%
≤30d 6 -44.0% -49.4% 33% 33% -66.0%
≤90d 9 -53.6% -58.0% 22% 22% -68.3%
all 9 -53.6% -58.0% 22% 22% -68.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.0% 22% -68.3%
10% -62.0% 11% -71.3%
15% -65.7% 0% -74.1%
20% -69.0% 0% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$100 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$583
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage32d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $298 $220 −$78 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $126 $122 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $82 +$25 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $237 −$228 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 09 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $173 −$17 -10%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 24 $43 −$8 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $196 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $130 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $107 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $74 18h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $130 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $130 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $49 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 21h
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $155 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $155 25d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $147 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $157 32d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 32d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $59 32d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 32d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $173 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.75 · official $353.24 · 59 history records