Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf147…df5c
weather · 240 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$35 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses161 / 77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 240
History coverage145d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 238 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 94¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 90¢ 89¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? No 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? No 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? No 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? No 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? No 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? No 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$35
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? SELL No 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 80¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? SELL No 84¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 84¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $9 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 47% -12.6%
≤30d 100 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 40% -12.6%
≤90d 238 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 25% -11.7%
all 238 -3.2% -12.4% 68% 25% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 25% -11.7%
10% -20.8% 13% -20.2%
15% -28.4% 8% -27.9%
20% -35.4% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.00 · official $14.00 (match) · 627 history records