Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf146…d3ff sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$223 (+9%) realized +$223 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$123
other 4% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.0% +3.1% 55% 55% -1.5%
≤30d 11 +14.0% +3.1% 55% 55% -1.5%
≤90d 11 +14.0% +3.1% 55% 55% -1.5%
all 11 +14.0% +3.1% 55% 55% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 55% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 55% -10.9%
15% -15.8% 45% -19.5%
20% -24.0% 27% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$85 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $141 +$36 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $94 +$47 +50%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $405 −$11 -3%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $50 +$55 +110%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $17 +$33 +193%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $41 −$24 -58%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $328 +$146 +44%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $651 −$130 -20%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $407 +$279 +69%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $269 −$125 -46%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $140 −$138 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $178 45m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 79¢ $141 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $94 8h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Paulo Dos Santos 75¢ $94 8h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 78¢ $99 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Santiago De La Fuente 30¢ $75 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 39¢ $102 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $115 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 36¢ $102 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $109 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 36¢ $102 9h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 90¢ $105 9h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 42¢ $50 9h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 93¢ $50 9h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 31¢ $17 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Daniil Glinka $17 10h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 100¢ $101 10h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 18¢ $41 10h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 76¢ $146 10h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 59¢ $176 10h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 79¢ $227 10h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 52¢ $152 10h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 31¢ $49 11h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 32¢ $122 11h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 99¢ $470 11h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 45¢ $216 11h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 48¢ $216 11h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 41¢ $191 11h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon SELL Pedro Martinez 46¢ $191 12h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 37¢ $158 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records