Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf143…9f6b other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-4%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$5
sports 6% −$20
crypto 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.5% -0.9% 88% 50% -7.8%
≤30d 9 +7.8% -2.4% 78% 44% -7.8%
≤90d 9 +7.8% -2.4% 78% 44% -7.8%
all 10 -3.0% -12.2% 70% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 40% -13.0%
10% -20.6% 30% -21.4%
15% -28.3% 10% -29.0%
20% -35.3% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage224d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $148 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $137 +$3 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $148 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $19 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $137 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 21¢ $1 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $1 16d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 16¢ $10 226d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $10 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records