Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf142…03cb sports 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,266 (-9%) realized −$2,208 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%161W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$52
14 days−$6
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,303
other 3% −$39
crypto 1% +$33
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +7.6% -2.6% 49% 49% -10.4%
≤30d 111 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 45% -12.0%
≤90d 221 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 41% -19.3%
all 375 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 43% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 43% -17.6%
10% -28.9% 41% -25.5%
15% -35.8% 39% -32.7%
20% -42.1% 33% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$57 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$2,208
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses161 / 214
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions8
Markets (closed)375 / 383
History coverage131d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $187 $171 −$16 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 66¢ 56¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 39¢ 32¢ $55 $46 −$9 (-17%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$22 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 +$33 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 +$25 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$30 +76%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 16 $122 −$51 -42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$66 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $157 −$155 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $192 −$190 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $159 +$131 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $36 −$35 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 +$50 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $86 +$49 +57%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $73 −$72 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$116 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$125 +41%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $99 +$104 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$13 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$121 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $45 +$12 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$71 +140%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $78 +$65 +84%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $130 +$47 +36%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $161 +$78 +48%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$89 +509%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 +$91 +152%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $109 −$107 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$133 +650%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$116 +226%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $32 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $39 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $39 19h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 66¢ $61 36h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 39¢ $56 36h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 15¢ $71 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $12 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $126 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $61 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $96 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $192 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $36 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $30 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $32 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $135 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 16¢ $10 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 52¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.78 · official $463.78 (match) · 611 history records