Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf13f…7080 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$98 (+20%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$80
crypto 1% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.5% -24.5% 58% 50% +13.3%
≤30d 12 -16.5% -24.5% 58% 50% +13.3%
≤90d 12 -16.5% -24.5% 58% 50% +13.3%
all 12 -16.5% -24.5% 58% 50% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 50% +13.3%
10% -31.7% 42% +2.5%
15% -38.3% 42% -7.4%
20% -44.4% 17% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.15 per $1 lost it wins $6.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $0 $0 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 −$6 -73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $82 +$38 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $78 +$5 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 +$5 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $108 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $110 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $82 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $78 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $46 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.05 · official $49.05 (match) · 27 history records