Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf13d…afc3 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$758 (+1%) realized +$371 · open +$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%45W / 28L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$810
7 days−$1,484
14 days−$3,458
30 days−$3,891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$146
other 45% +$1,836
world 1% −$500
crypto 1% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.6% -26.4% 45% 45% -19.0%
≤30d 45 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -17.4%
≤90d 73 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 62% -8.3%
all 73 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 62% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 62% -8.3%
10% -15.0% 56% -17.1%
15% -23.2% 45% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 34% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$838 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$2,387
Realized+$371
Unrealized+$387
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses45 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage43d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $2,000 $2,387 +$387 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,028 +$1,693 +84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,016 −$3,000 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,036 +$2,118 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,024 −$2,000 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $812 +$744 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,216 −$1,200 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $508 −$500 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$534 +105%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $304 −$300 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4,042 −$4,000 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $202 +$72 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 31 $45 +$5 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,520 +$1,162 +76%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,295 −$1,269 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 29 $71 +$27 +38%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,513 +$635 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $86 −$48 -55%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $403 +$123 +31%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $203 +$197 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $304 +$251 +83%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $51 +$51 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $204 −$176 -86%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,009 +$438 +43%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $509 +$806 +158%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $202 +$106 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $503 −$428 -85%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,526 +$1,963 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,016 −$881 -87%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $504 +$172 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $506 −$500 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $505 +$241 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,015 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,720 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,154 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,515 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,556 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,081 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $506 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $202 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $508 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,020 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $508 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $304 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $508 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $1,006 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $1,011 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,386.67 · official $2,386.67 (match) · 156 history records