Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf13d…e84c tech 11 markets active 156d ago coverage 218d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20,726 (+81%) realized +$20,726 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$2,323per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 99% +$20,885
world 0% −$100
other 0% −$40
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 11 -19.1% -26.8% 27% 27% +63.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 27% +63.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 27% +48.2%
15% -40.2% 27% +33.9%
20% -46.0% 27% +20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +81% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
21.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,519 vs −$979 · ×9.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20,726
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage218d
Avg bet$2,323
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Feb 02 $672 +$959 +143%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 29 $2,251 −$2,251 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 29 $10,860 +$17,085 +157%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 16 $454 −$454 -100%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Dec 06 $28 −$19 -67%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Sep 11 $6,151 +$10,515 +171%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Sep 03 $34 −$5 -14%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump and Putin hug on Friday? Aug 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Aug 14 $4,968 −$4,968 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $320 156d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $45 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 161d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $210 163d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $160 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $407 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $220 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $124 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $366 164d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $48 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $67 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 166d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records