Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf139…1d3b sports 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20,877 (+12%) realized +$21,010 · open −$133
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%120W / 91L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$734est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$6,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,168
7 days−$727
14 days−$727
30 days−$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$17,125
other 19% +$3,541
politics 0% +$303
world 0% −$236
crypto 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +32.1% +19.5% 67% 67% -6.8%
≤30d 9 +119.8% +98.9% 67% 67% -9.3%
≤90d 80 +6.0% -4.1% 64% 61% +1.5%
all 211 -3.9% -13.1% 57% 56% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 56% +2.5%
10% -21.4% 46% -7.3%
15% -29.0% 33% -16.3%
20% -36.0% 26% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$270 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$6,936
Realized+$21,010
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses120 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$734
Open positions4
Markets (closed)211 / 215
History coverage238d
Avg bet$814
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3,200 $3,690 +$490 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $3,365 $2,650 −$715 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $440 $532 +$92 (+21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 Jun 17 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,579 −$1,570 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,017 −$2,920 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,523 +$1,377 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,528 +$1,672 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $988 +$312 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $525 +$326 +62%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $592 −$592 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $71 +$29 +41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 18 $93 −$93 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $50 −$36 -73%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $183 +$20 +11%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $197 +$103 +52%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $203 −$106 -52%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $383 +$91 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $383 −$6 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 11 $157 +$43 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 02 $2,570 −$2,570 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $948 −$578 -61%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $830 +$170 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $7,280 +$1,698 +23%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $5,255 +$2,044 +39%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $690 −$681 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 24 $154 +$46 +30%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 24 $3,003 +$297 +10%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $8,106 +$3,282 +40%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $6,319 −$6,298 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Apr 21 $100 −$98 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $4,978 +$954 +19%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 20 $100 −$99 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $171 −$127 -74%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $8,010 +$988 +12%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 19 $110 +$87 +79%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff Apr 16 $4,242 +$832 +20%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 16 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $5,024 +$860 +17%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $6,000 +$1,940 +32%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Sabres vs. Blackhawks Apr 14 $3,861 +$2,079 +54%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1,334 +$169 +13%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $990 +$1,413 +143%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 13 $3,022 +$827 +27%
Rangers vs. Stars Apr 12 $630 +$370 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 BUY 33¢ $204 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,579 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $55 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $3,017 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,400 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,523 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,528 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $7 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $4 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $6 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $32 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $15 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $198 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $22 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $158 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $15 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $16 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $63 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $15 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $17 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,935.99 · official $6,935.99 (match) · 1242 history records