Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf136…5c3a
sports · 112 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$52 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage155d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $412 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 03 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $356 −$3 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $459 −$3 -1%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $213 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $930 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $139 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $147 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $311 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $308 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $671 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $476 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $337 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $324 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 25% −$16
politics 21% −$9
other 17% −$13
economics 15% −$2
world 9% −$5
crypto 7% −$3
culture 3% −$2
tech 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $11 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $42 7d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $3 8d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 8d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 16d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $56 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $56 28d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 92¢ $8 101d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 92¢ $9 101d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $136 101d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $136 101d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $133 101d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $133 101d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 90¢ $139 101d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $140 101d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 92¢ $122 101d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 92¢ $122 101d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $139 101d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $139 101d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $141 101d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $141 101d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $131 101d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $131 101d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 101d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $129 101d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 101d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $129 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 110 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.09 · official $71.09 (match) · 525 history records