Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf130…15ea world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$3
politics 25% −$11
sports 13% +$11
other 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +3.5% -6.3% 33% 11% -8.5%
≤90d 9 +3.5% -6.3% 33% 11% -8.5%
all 22 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 9% -8.7%
10% -16.2% 9% -17.5%
15% -24.3% 5% -25.4%
20% -31.7% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage485d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $21 −$3 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $12 +$4 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bernie Sanders applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Mar 04 $22 $0 +0%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $41 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $41 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $41 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $42 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $27 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $17 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $44 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 27¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $40 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $38 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $13 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $13 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $15 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $13 27d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship BUY No 98¢ $1 350d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $1 366d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 394d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2 421d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 435d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 453d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 453d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records