Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F1 0xf12b…40b2 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$56 (+9%) realized −$261 · open +$317

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown6%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+14.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+26.5%	+14.5%	50%	50%	+8.9%
≤30d	2	+26.5%	+14.5%	50%	50%	+8.9%
≤90d	2	+26.5%	+14.5%	50%	50%	+8.9%
all	2	+26.5%	+14.5%	50%	50%	+8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.5%	50%	+8.9%
10%	+3.5%	50%	-1.5%
15%	-6.5%	50%	-11.0%
20%	-15.7%	50%	-19.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$3 · ×17.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×17.69 per $1 lost it wins $17.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$317

Realized−$261

Unrealized+$317

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions8

Markets (closed)2 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown6%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	0¢	20¢	$0	$72	+$72 (+0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	0¢	16¢	$0	$47	+$47 (+0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	0¢	16¢	$0	$45	+$45 (+0%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	0¢	6¢	$0	$44	+$44 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	0¢	12¢	$0	$38	+$38 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	0¢	32¢	$0	$36	+$36 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	Yes	0¢	36¢	$0	$26	+$26 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$0	$8	+$8 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Jun 22	$155	−$3	-2%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Jun 22	$100	+$55	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$50	1m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$50	59m
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY Yes	17¢	$50	1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$9	1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$29	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	BUY Yes	33¢	$38	1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY Yes	21¢	$76	1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	SELL Yes	97¢	$152	2h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY Yes	98¢	$155	5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$155	7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY Yes	63¢	$100	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.34 · official $340.73 · 12 history records