Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf129…1edc sports 697 markets active 2d ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$538 (-5%) realized −$462 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%324W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day93.5pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$86
14 days−$142
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$361
other 27% −$110
weather 26% −$272
politics 6% +$211
world 4% −$22
tech 2% +$5
finance 1% $0
culture 1% +$17
crypto 0% +$32
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -38.3% -44.2% 24% 21% -31.4%
≤30d 423 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 41% -13.3%
≤90d 680 -3.0% -12.3% 48% 40% -13.3%
all 680 -3.0% -12.3% 48% 40% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 40% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 33% -21.6%
15% -28.3% 26% -29.2%
20% -35.4% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$462
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses324 / 356
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions20
Markets (closed)680 / 697
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day93.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 26¢ 61¢ $9 $21 +$12 (+135%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 66¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 81¢ 56¢ $18 $13 −$6 (-31%)
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 75¢ 93¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? No 59¢ 44¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-26%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 69¢ 56¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-19%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 30¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? No 80¢ 78¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 26¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 32¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-53%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 10¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? No 58¢ 26¢ $8 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 12¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 8¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? No 68¢ 39¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -93%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +170%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$7 +102%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $10 −$4 -37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$6 -57%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +28%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $10 +$8 +85%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$67 +673%
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 08 $9 −$2 -23%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $10 +$16 +163%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$16 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $0 40h
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 63¢ $4 40h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 2d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $0 3d
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 60¢ $21 3d
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $0 4d
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 62¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $0 4d
Jonathan Majors as Kang? SELL No 92¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $4 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 46¢ $0 5d
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL No 59¢ $0 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $0 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $0 5d
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL No 55¢ $0 5d
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL No 50¢ $0 5d
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL No 41¢ $0 5d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $9 5d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $2 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 5d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 81¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.58 · official $163.53 (match) · 3500 history records