Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F1 0xf128…ed0a other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+2%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 52L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$17
other 16% +$133
politics 4% +$10
sports 2% +$2
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.3% -15.2% 14% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 23% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 39 +10.9% +0.3% 36% 5% -7.9%
all 94 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 9% -7.9%
10% -13.5% 5% -16.7%
15% -21.9% 3% -24.8%
20% -29.5% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 52
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage481d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $146 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $319 −$13 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $303 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $7 −$3 -40%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $121 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $136 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $151 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $18 −$5 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $155 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $237 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $645 −$5 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $308 −$11 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $159 +$12 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $71 +$11 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $141 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $122 −$10 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $298 +$5 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $168 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $44 −$2 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $493 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $29 +$137 +469%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $156 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $1,041 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $328 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 04 $7 $0 +8%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 26 $8 −$4 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 22 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $146 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $146 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $64 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $77 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $148 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $148 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $148 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $55 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $19 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $88 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $136 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $47 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $31 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $12 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $139 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $151 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records