Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf126…a54c sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$53 (+9%) realized +$55 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$40
other 16% +$3
crypto 4% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.8% +2.1% 65% 65% +2.0%
≤30d 23 +12.8% +2.1% 65% 65% +2.0%
≤90d 23 +12.8% +2.1% 65% 65% +2.0%
all 23 +12.8% +2.1% 65% 65% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 65% +2.0%
10% -7.7% 65% -7.7%
15% -16.6% 61% -16.6%
20% -24.8% 52% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 +$14 +70%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $50 +$29 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$21 +83%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $18 +$10 +54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $22 −$3 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$12 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $13 +$8 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$18 +79%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 20 $33 +$29 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $20 1h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $50 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $20 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $25 24h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 65¢ $18 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur SELL Yunchaokete Bu 71¢ $18 33h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 79¢ $22 37h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Jelena Ostapenko 81¢ $25 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $28 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 65¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 65¢ $15 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 73¢ $10 2d
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $13 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $21 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $23 4d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 55¢ $14 4d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 55¢ $6 4d
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 5d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) BUY Fritz 52¢ $33 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.49 · official $47.49 (match) · 43 history records