Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf125…3878 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$30 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$24
world 39% $0
politics 13% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.4%
all 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -8.4%
10% -16.9% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×17.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×52.71 per $1 lost it wins $52.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage72d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $290 $284 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 07 $451 +$14 +3%
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? May 06 $451 $0 -0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) Apr 23 $409 +$2 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $409 $0 +0%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) Apr 08 $206 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $290 1h
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 97¢ $354 41d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 97¢ $97 41d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $155 41d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 41d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 41d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $451 42d
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 100¢ $409 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $409 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $409 56d
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) BUY Villarreal CF 96¢ $206 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.65 · official $283.65 (match) · 14 history records