Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf124…17cc politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+0%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$20
politics 43% −$22
sports 5% +$115
crypto 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 +0.6% -9.0% 6% 3% -9.5%
all 139 +8.0% -2.2% 9% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 6% -9.4%
10% -11.6% 5% -18.0%
15% -20.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -28.0% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×17.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 142
History coverage118d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $350 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $421 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $298 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $283 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $318 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $319 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $311 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $261 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $301 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $312 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $261 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $333 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 34h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 39h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 47h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 47h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 11d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 19d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 20d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.78 · official $120.78 (match) · 435 history records