Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F1 0xf123…feac other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$347 (+7%) realized +$370 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,037
other 23% −$726
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-75.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -72.6% -75.2% 17% 17% +3.1%
≤30d 6 -72.6% -75.2% 17% 17% +3.1%
≤90d 6 -72.6% -75.2% 17% 17% +3.1%
all 6 -72.6% -75.2% 17% 17% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.2% 17% +3.1%
10% -77.5% 17% -6.7%
15% -79.7% 17% -15.7%
20% -81.7% 17% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,047 vs −$144 · ×7.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$897
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $256 −$250 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,619 +$1,047 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on BUY 14¢ $513 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 13¢ $513 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 10h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 10h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 10h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $256 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,619 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 9¢ $514 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $896.75 · official $1,896.75 · 16 history records