Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf123…5ee7 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,150 (-5%) realized −$1,151 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,515per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,156
other 26% +$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -38.2% -44.1% 12% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 0% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -49.4% 0% -22.4%
15% -54.3% 0% -29.9%
20% -58.8% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$179 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,151
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage557d
Avg bet$2,515
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 13 $16,766 −$1,154 -7%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Dec 31 $2,821 −$38 -1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Dec 31 $2,874 +$102 +4%
Will October 2025 be the 1st hottest on record? Oct 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Penn State Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? Dec 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 06 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $55 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $5,180 95d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $4,932 95d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $5,500 95d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $5,557 95d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $5,297 95d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $5,906 95d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 95d
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? SELL No 80¢ $2,782 166d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $13 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $1 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $28 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $1 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $3 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $6 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $18 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $1 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $14 167d
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? BUY No 81¢ $2,821 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 49¢ $374 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 51¢ $2,517 167d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 49¢ $2,835 168d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 49¢ $39 168d
Will October 2025 be the 1st hottest on record? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 245d
Notre Dame vs. Penn State BUY Penn State 49¢ $2 522d
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? SELL No 100¢ $3 522d
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? BUY No 100¢ $3 522d
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? BUY Yes 62¢ $55 556d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 556d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.08 · official $14.08 (match) · 33 history records