Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf121…8c74 sports 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$12
politics 24% −$9
other 20% −$11
crypto 9% −$4
culture 6% −$3
economics 4% $0
finance 3% −$8
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 153 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage169d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $291 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $254 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $482 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $404 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $212 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $364 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $238 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $550 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 02 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $184 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 30 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $143 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $146 −$3 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $146 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $146 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $58 7d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $58 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 22d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 22d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 35d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $45 35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $54 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $54 43d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $61 68d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 97¢ $61 68d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 68d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 69d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $52 69d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $52 69d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $62 69d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $63 69d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $65 69d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $65 69d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 69d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 70d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 70d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 70d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 70d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 70d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $40 70d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $40 71d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $48 71d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $48 71d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $52 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.56 · official $55.56 (match) · 645 history records