Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf121…7bc6 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$82 (+9%) realized +$84 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$85
crypto 26% −$135
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 18% -16.2%
≤30d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 18% -16.2%
≤90d 11 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 18% -16.2%
all 11 -37.7% -43.6% 36% 18% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 18% -16.2%
10% -49.0% 9% -24.2%
15% -54.0% 9% -31.5%
20% -58.5% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $199 $197 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$77 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $391 +$47 +12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.49 · official $197.49 (match) · 23 history records