Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf120…ce3c sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$733 (+24%) realized +$752 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$216
14 days+$682
30 days+$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$595
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.1% +1.5% 48% 48% +3.5%
≤30d 53 +33.1% +20.4% 55% 55% +10.7%
≤90d 53 +33.1% +20.4% 55% 55% +10.7%
all 53 +33.1% +20.4% 55% 55% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 55% +10.7%
10% +8.9% 55% +0.1%
15% -1.6% 55% -9.5%
20% -11.3% 49% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$42 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$752
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage14d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 54¢ 71¢ $34 $45 +$11 (+31%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 59¢ 64¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 27¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $81 +$59 +73%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $41 −$5 -13%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $48 +$67 +139%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $87 −$86 -99%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $127 +$54 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$48 +249%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $79 +$85 +107%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $109 +$52 +48%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 17 $75 +$68 +90%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $57 −$56 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $17 +$11 +66%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $81 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 −$78 -60%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $17 −$8 -47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $43 +$97 +226%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$16 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$55 +82%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $64 +$86 +134%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $77 +$42 +55%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$34 +96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $69 +$39 +57%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $51 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$61 +229%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $52 +$79 +152%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $173 −$89 -51%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $77 +$95 +123%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $28 +$50 +181%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $118 −$117 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $44 +$72 +165%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $46 +$46 +100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $82 +$53 +64%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $44 +$72 +163%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $24 +$65 +276%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $71 +$34 +48%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $14 +$10 +73%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $34 +$73 +216%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $60 +$74 +123%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 54¢ $34 33m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 59¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $140 5h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL Clutchain 50¢ $36 6h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $81 7h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $115 7h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 56¢ $41 8h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 41¢ $48 8h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 28¢ $18 10h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 52¢ $87 10h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 56¢ $72 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $30 2d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group SELL SaD Esports 43¢ $54 2d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 42¢ $55 2d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $68 2d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $164 2d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 48¢ $79 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $41 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 65¢ $71 2d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 28¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 56¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 30¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $161 3d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 67¢ $109 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $57 4d
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 52¢ $75 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $29 5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 59¢ $17 5d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL VP.Prodigy 50¢ $76 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.82 · official $85.83 · 103 history records