Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf11c…fa02 crypto 1334 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$596 (-2%) realized −$597 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%1151W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$258
sports 6% +$141
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -76.6% -78.8% 14% 8% -63.6%
≤30d 443 -76.6% -78.8% 14% 8% -63.6%
≤90d 1417 -23.9% -31.2% 66% 14% -20.0%
all 1688 -20.7% -28.3% 68% 16% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 16% -18.9%
10% -35.1% 8% -26.6%
15% -41.4% 5% -33.7%
20% -47.2% 2% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$597
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1151 / 537
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1688 / 1334
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $0 −$5 -2301%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $145 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $139 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 3h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $135 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 5h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.74 · official $7.97 (match) · 3500 history records