Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf119…41b6 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-10%) realized −$258 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 41L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,074
7 days+$1,021
14 days+$805
30 days+$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$1,027
sports 6% −$168
other 5% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +18.9% +7.5% 47% 47% +25.5%
≤30d 75 +15.6% +4.6% 45% 45% +14.3%
≤90d 75 +15.6% +4.6% 45% 45% +14.3%
all 75 +15.6% +4.6% 45% 45% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 45% +14.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 44% +3.4%
15% -14.5% 41% -6.6%
20% -22.9% 40% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$38 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$258
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage7d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$29 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $67 +$58 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$415 +728%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $73 +$110 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $168 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $55 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $98 +$235 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$43 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$138 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$63 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $66 +$308 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$110 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$109 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$37 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$122 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$57 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$67 +129%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$17 +165%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.29 (match) · 242 history records