Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf118…354c crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%38W / 2L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$6
crypto 16% +$28
tech 4% +$1
world 3% +$3
other 3% +$1
sports 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 40 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 2% -9.1%
10% -16.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses38 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage630d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 23 $52 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$430 on the final day of trading of th Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Feb 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Feb 10 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 05 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 15 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 06 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Nov 06 $34 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 27 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 27 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 28 $90 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 17 $79 +$10 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 13 $75 +$4 +6%
Will Solana hit $250 in March? Apr 06 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 07 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $65 $0 +1%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Celtics vs. Wizards Dec 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 05 $180 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Dec 05 $59 +$4 +6%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Nov 29 $58 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $4,071 −$16 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 36d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $20 36d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 36d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $14 36d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $50 76d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $52 76d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 90d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$430 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $24 90d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $33 90d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 90d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 112d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $32 112d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 115d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 115d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $54 133d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 133d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 133d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $32 169d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 169d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $52 169d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $32 190d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 190d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $32 190d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $55 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.31 · official $103.31 (match) · 125 history records