Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf117…31b6 sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$551 (-17%) realized −$548 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$111
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$36
sports 29% −$423
politics 18% −$271
world 16% +$18
tech 4% +$172
crypto 1% −$18
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.9% -72.8% 25% 25% -61.1%
≤30d 7 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 29% -32.4%
≤90d 7 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 29% -32.4%
all 98 -8.0% -16.8% 42% 39% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 39% -25.1%
10% -24.7% 34% -32.2%
15% -32.0% 32% -38.8%
20% -38.7% 30% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$548
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage314d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $83 −$82 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $69 +$14 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-22? Jan 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 20 $194 −$13 -7%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 18 $188 −$186 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs HOTU (BO3) Oct 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Oct 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Oct 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs 3DMAX (BO3) Oct 06 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) Oct 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs ENCE (BO3) Oct 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs HOTU (BO3) Oct 04 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Oct 04 $10 +$10 +92%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-02? Oct 03 $13 +$7 +54%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 02 $10 +$16 +156%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs B8 (BO3) Oct 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3? Oct 02 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? Oct 02 $36 +$40 +113%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Legacy Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $34 +$24 +70%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $6 $0 +7%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $4 −$3 -75%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29? Sep 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29? Sep 29 $12 +$8 +61%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs ENCE Sep 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs HOTU Sep 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates Sep 29 $10 +$20 +194%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG Sep 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Sep 27 $393 +$83 +21%
Will Netanyahu say "Hamas" 15+ times during address to UN General Asse Sep 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly o Sep 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $29 +$24 +82%
Will Trump say "Manhattan" during 9-11 memorial event? Sep 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FURIA win FISSURE Playground 2? Sep 26 $9 −$9 -100%
CS: HEROIC vs paiN Sep 26 $34 −$14 -40%
CS: G2 vs The MongolZ Sep 25 $11 −$11 -100%
CS: FURIA vs G2 Sep 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Twin Towers" during 9-11 memorial event? Sep 25 $23 −$23 -100%
CS: TYLOO vs Liquid Sep 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $83 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $69 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 12d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-22? BUY Yes 50¢ $68 157d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $68 157d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $79 159d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 159d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio SELL Yes 0¢ $1 159d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 15¢ $14 161d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 15¢ $13 161d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 15¢ $1 161d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 15¢ $50 161d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 12¢ $2 161d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 13¢ $69 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 161d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 12¢ $28 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 161d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.27 · official $27.27 (match) · 514 history records