trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +10.7% | +0.2% | 70% | 40% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +9.6% | -0.9% | 75% | 33% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +14.1% | +3.2% | 79% | 43% | -7.9% |
| all | 14 | +14.1% | +3.2% | 79% | 43% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.2% | 43% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -6.7% | 21% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -15.7% | 21% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -24.0% | 7% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $78 | $78 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $76 | $76 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $41 | $41 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | -24% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $225 | $0 | +0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +47% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Jun 17 | $1 | +$1 | +50% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 21 | $213 | +$5 | +3% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 14 | $1 | +$1 | +65% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | May 05 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |