Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf115…a8f9 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$6
crypto 24% −$1
politics 7% $0
other 2% +$1
finance 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.7% +0.2% 70% 40% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +9.6% -0.9% 75% 33% -8.2%
≤90d 14 +14.1% +3.2% 79% 43% -7.9%
all 14 +14.1% +3.2% 79% 43% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 43% -7.9%
10% -6.7% 21% -16.7%
15% -15.7% 21% -24.7%
20% -24.0% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.35 per $1 lost it wins $12.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage139d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 82¢ 81¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $225 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $1 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 21 $213 +$5 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1 +$1 +65%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $79 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $77 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 82¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $2 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $225 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $185 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 26d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $213 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 34d
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? BUY No 67¢ $1 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 66¢ $1 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 83¢ $2 42d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $1 42d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 42d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $1 42d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $1 42d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $1 110d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $1 110d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.54 · official $195.54 (match) · 61 history records