Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf115…0548 crypto 34 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-18%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$15
politics 5% −$5
tech 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -27.2% -34.2% 42% 36% -26.1%
≤30d 34 -29.4% -36.1% 41% 35% -29.6%
≤90d 34 -29.4% -36.1% 41% 35% -29.6%
all 34 -29.4% -36.1% 41% 35% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 35% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 32% -36.3%
15% -47.8% 29% -42.5%
20% -52.9% 21% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 9¢ $1 5d
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 7¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records