Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf114…6ecc weather 531 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,457 (+34%) realized +$6,476 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%313W / 210L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day134.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$3,131
politics 1% −$205
other 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +14.6% +3.7% 56% 44% +9.9%
≤30d 523 +15.3% +4.3% 60% 46% +4.2%
≤90d 523 +15.3% +4.3% 60% 46% +4.2%
all 523 +15.3% +4.3% 60% 46% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 46% +4.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 34% -5.8%
15% -14.8% 23% -14.9%
20% -23.2% 17% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized+$6,476
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses313 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)523 / 531
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day134.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? No 96¢ 94¢ $217 $214 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $94 $105 +$11 (+12%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 99¢ $50 $99 +$49 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? Yes 59¢ 68¢ $81 $94 +$13 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Yes 69¢ 90¢ $52 $68 +$16 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? No 81¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 18 $29 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $49 +$20 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$22 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $59 +$18 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $77 −$15 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $79 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 18 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$5 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 −$18 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$14 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$9 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +599%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $34 +$24 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 37m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 37m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 37m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 72¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.31 · official $584.31 (match) · 3500 history records