Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F1 0xf114…0641 weather 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+9%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%128W / 271L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$13
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% +$20
other 21% +$26
crypto 3% −$1
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +96.3% +77.6% 44% 44% +63.4%
≤30d 76 -10.8% -19.3% 25% 25% -19.9%
≤90d 218 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 30% -10.3%
all 399 +9.3% -1.1% 32% 32% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 32% -5.8%
10% -10.6% 31% -14.8%
15% -19.2% 30% -23.0%
20% -27.1% 28% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses128 / 271
Open positions7
Markets (closed)399 / 407
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Yes 42¢ 39¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$4 +408%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$6 +540%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 27? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 27? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 28? May 29 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 29 $1 +$6 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? May 27 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 24? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 22? May 23 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 24? May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 13¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 4? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 4? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 805 history records