Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf114…d319
politics · 130 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage118d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 0 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Suns vs. Kings Kings 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Grizzlies 41¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $144 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $117 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $445 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $198 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $460 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $118 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$9
politics 31% −$7
sports 6% +$8
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 46h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $20 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 12d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $112 14d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $112 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 17d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 18d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $99 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 19d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 20d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 130 +0.3% -9.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records