Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf112…3081 crypto 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-7%) realized −$12 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%71W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$22
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$27
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -10.9% -19.4% 34% 32% -18.1%
≤30d 210 -11.3% -19.7% 34% 32% -18.4%
≤90d 210 -11.3% -19.7% 34% 32% -18.4%
all 210 -11.3% -19.7% 34% 32% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 32% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 30% -26.2%
15% -34.4% 27% -33.3%
20% -40.9% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses71 / 139
Open positions7
Markets (closed)210 / 217
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $1.95 (match) · 356 history records