Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf111…d6c6 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$5
other 21% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 5% -9.1%
all 49 -0.0% -9.5% 41% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage368d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $57 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $90 +$5 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $60 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $61 +$5 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $104 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $37 −$3 -9%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15? Aug 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 57¢ $11 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 57¢ $46 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $57 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $52 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records