Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf10c…002f crypto 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$408 (+1%) realized +$408 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate84%244W / 45L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$80
14 days−$54
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$16
world 3% +$7
sports 1% +$346
politics 1% −$5
other 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 83% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 54 -3.4% -12.6% 85% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 210 +7.4% -2.9% 84% 11% -8.7%
all 289 +5.6% -4.5% 84% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 9% -9.0%
10% -13.6% 8% -17.7%
15% -22.0% 7% -25.7%
20% -29.6% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$408
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses244 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)289 / 289
History coverage233d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 289 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 21? Jun 22 $1,293 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,423 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $644 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 15 $862 −$84 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $424 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $414 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $220 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $392 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $626 +$4 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $500 +$9 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 06 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $187 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $292 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $347 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 04 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $632 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,094 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,445 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,037 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Seas Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $515 +$46 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 31? Jun 01 $329 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? May 31 $507 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 31? May 31 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 31? May 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $669 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 30? May 30 $306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $834 +$3 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 29 $303 −$15 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $504 −$100 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 28 $139 −$5 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,022 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 27 $587 +$3 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 26 $467 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 26 $544 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $546 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 25 $128 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $278 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $80 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Solana reach $80 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,290 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,423 3d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 86¢ $82 6d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 84¢ $5 6d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 84¢ $77 6d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 85¢ $169 6d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 85¢ $63 6d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 83¢ $383 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $335 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $214 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $99 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $219 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $407 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $420 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $224 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $220 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $414 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $110 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $282 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $199 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $630 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $606 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1126 history records