Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf10b…a43e
crypto · 8 markets active 3h ago
4.5score
+$328 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$328 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$328
14 days+$328
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $703 +$234 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$403 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $96 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $93 +$148 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$347
sports 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $703 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $300 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $94 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $96 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $93 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $107 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $100 4h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 38% +9.6%
≤30d 8 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 38% +9.6%
≤90d 8 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 38% +9.6%
all 8 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 38% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 38% +9.6%
10% -35.9% 38% -0.9%
15% -42.1% 25% -10.5%
20% -47.8% 25% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records