Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf10b…9c50 crypto 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,195 (-11%) realized −$3,229 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%63W / 41L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,159
7 days−$5,133
14 days−$5,133
30 days−$5,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$2,361
sports 44% −$1,458
other 3% +$414
economics 0% +$13
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -62.9% -66.4% 19% 16% -75.1%
≤30d 32 -62.9% -66.4% 19% 16% -75.1%
≤90d 78 -21.5% -28.9% 53% 46% -28.9%
all 104 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 53% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 53% -21.0%
10% -25.2% 40% -28.6%
15% -32.4% 30% -35.5%
20% -39.0% 24% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$250 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$934
Realized−$3,229
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses63 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions4
Markets (closed)104 / 108
History coverage244d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $500 $535 +$35 (+7%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $204 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $210 +$419 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $209 −$200 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $119 −$119 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challeng Jun 26 $340 −$340 -100%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 26 $301 −$301 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $286 −$286 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $478 −$478 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - Jun 26 $377 −$377 -100%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - Jun 26 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: LYON vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifie Jun 26 $573 −$573 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $700 −$700 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $203 +$291 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $88 +$59 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$21 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $200 +$39 +20%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $445 +$94 +21%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Orbit Anonymo (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Se Apr 22 $289 +$57 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $509 +$80 +16%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Apr 20 $400 +$73 +18%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 20 $734 +$115 +16%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $100 +$23 +23%
First Blood in Game 1? Apr 20 $100 +$86 +86%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 20 $400 +$43 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 20 $533 +$152 +29%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Apr 20 $600 +$249 +41%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 20 $600 +$145 +24%
LoL: Dignitas vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 20 $828 +$60 +7%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 19 $282 +$161 +57%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 19 $300 +$86 +29%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $414 +$163 +40%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $300 +$118 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 19 $200 +$108 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 35¢ $191 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $304 2h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 36¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $629 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $210 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 30¢ $102 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $101 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $101 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $88 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 3d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $378 64d
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $239 64d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $100 64d
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $200 64d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $100 64d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 100¢ $539 64d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $445 64d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 70¢ $377 64d
LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challeng BUY Conviction 88¢ $340 64d
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Orbit Anonymo (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Se SELL Barcząca Esports 100¢ $345 64d
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Orbit Anonymo (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Se BUY Barcząca Esports 83¢ $289 65d
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Bushido Wildcats 49¢ $300 65d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $589 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $933.75 · official $933.83 (match) · 230 history records