Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf10a…d6c2 sports 348 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$621 (+3%) realized +$685 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%172W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,333
7 days+$522
14 days+$706
30 days+$916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$372
other 20% +$160
crypto 5% +$147
world 1% −$180
culture 0% −$30
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -2.9% -12.2% 48% 48% -5.7%
≤30d 212 +3.6% -6.3% 52% 52% -3.9%
≤90d 214 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 52% -4.2%
all 342 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 50% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 50% -6.9%
10% -18.1% 50% -15.8%
15% -26.0% 49% -23.9%
20% -33.3% 45% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$50 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$613
Realized+$685
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses172 / 170
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions6
Markets (closed)342 / 348
History coverage112d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $130 $111 −$19 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $147 $104 −$43 (-29%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $456 +$362 +79%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$63 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $143 +$216 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 +$365 +712%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$126 +83%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$84 +165%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $31 +$184 +596%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $254 +$226 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $88 −$86 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $254 −$250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $51 9h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $355 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 12h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 12h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $101 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $143 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $46 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 37h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $102 37h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 37h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.45 · official $613.45 (match) · 568 history records