Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F1 0xf10a…eefc other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$183 (+7%) realized +$175 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate81%21W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$738now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$57

7 days+$89

14 days+$109

30 days+$109

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)-2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+4.6%	-5.4%	79%	67%	-5.0%
≤30d	26	+7.3%	-2.9%	81%	69%	-4.1%
≤90d	26	+7.3%	-2.9%	81%	69%	-4.1%
all	26	+7.3%	-2.9%	81%	69%	-4.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.9%	69%	-4.1%
10%	-12.2%	38%	-13.3%
15%	-20.7%	27%	-21.7%
20%	-28.4%	12%	-29.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$53 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.41 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$738

Realized+$175

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses21 / 5

Open positions14

Markets (closed)26 / 40

History coverage21d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 14 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$110	$113	+$3 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	82¢	86¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	96¢	97¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	No	86¢	91¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	95¢	99¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+5%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	95¢	94¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	79¢	76¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	94¢	95¢	$40	$40	+$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	No	72¢	72¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	60¢	58¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	82¢	79¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-4%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Yes	90¢	88¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$42	+$4	+9%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	Jun 27	$42	+$14	+34%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$52	+$12	+22%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$84	+$16	+20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$105	−$10	-9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$52	+$10	+20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$188	+$20	+11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$80	+$11	+14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$32	−$32	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$105	+$93	+88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$136	+$20	+15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$136	+$29	+21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$84	+$20	+24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$21	+$10	+49%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$183	−$183	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$84	+$9	+11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$21	+$11	+51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$53	+$27	+52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$83	+$6	+8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$53	+$26	+49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$19	−$19	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$31	+$2	+8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 21	$77	+$12	+15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 19	$21	+$9	+42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 15	$28	+$11	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	60¢	$32	1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	89¢	$52	1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	82¢	$31	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	72¢	$31	1h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag	BUY Yes	96¢	$104	15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	82¢	$95	25h
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	BUY No	86¢	$52	25h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	95¢	$52	25h
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	BUY Yes	95¢	$52	25h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY No	72¢	$31	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$52	2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	80¢	$52	2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$31	2d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY Yes	90¢	$10	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	88¢	$31	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	88¢	$31	2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$21	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$52	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$63	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	84¢	$63	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	82¢	$52	2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY Yes	71¢	$42	3d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	BUY No	79¢	$52	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	83¢	$42	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$63	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	82¢	$52	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	82¢	$73	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$73	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$73	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	82¢	$105	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $737.97 · official $737.91 (match) · 105 history records