Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf10a…58c8 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$282 (+35%) realized +$282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 67L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$301
7 days+$272
14 days+$272
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$209
other 31% +$8
sports 11% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +40.6% +27.2% 27% 26% +18.5%
≤30d 90 +40.6% +27.2% 27% 26% +18.5%
≤90d 90 +40.6% +27.2% 27% 26% +18.5%
all 91 +39.1% +25.8% 26% 25% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.8% 25% +16.8%
10% +13.8% 24% +5.7%
15% +2.8% 22% -4.5%
20% -7.3% 19% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$7 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage222d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$7 +338%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$121 +1145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$161 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$19 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$66 +1241%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records