Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf105…9da0 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$168 (-19%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.1% -21.4% 59% 41% -26.9%
≤30d 22 -13.1% -21.4% 59% 41% -26.9%
≤90d 22 -13.1% -21.4% 59% 41% -26.9%
all 22 -13.1% -21.4% 59% 41% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 41% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 27% -33.9%
15% -35.7% 18% -40.3%
20% -42.0% 14% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $78 +$78 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$50 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records