Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf104…2b34 sports 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%118W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$32
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -13.1% -21.4% 37% 35% -17.3%
≤30d 300 -7.5% -16.4% 38% 37% -13.9%
≤90d 306 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 37% -13.7%
all 306 -6.8% -15.7% 39% 37% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 37% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 34% -22.0%
15% -31.1% 30% -29.5%
20% -37.9% 28% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses118 / 188
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 307
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 44¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 43¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+132%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Toronto Blue Jays 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 40¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Washington Nationals 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Kansas City Royals 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners New York Mets 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins New York Mets 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 +$4 +245%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 +$3 +169%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 +$3 +185%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 +$2 +41%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 +$3 +210%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 −$2 -44%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 +$3 +112%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 +$3 +143%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 −$1 -77%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 −$2 -38%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2 +$3 +107%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$3 +137%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$3 +126%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2 −$1 -66%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 −$2 -91%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$3 +210%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -74%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 +$3 +70%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 +$3 +167%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$3 +177%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $2 5m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 99¢ $5 32m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 22¢ $1 43m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 43¢ $2 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $2 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 15¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $1 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 99¢ $5 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 34¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 1¢ $0 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 36¢ $2 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ $2 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 2¢ $0 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 25¢ $1 19h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 41¢ $2 21h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 34¢ $2 22h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 1¢ $0 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $2 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $5 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 34¢ $2 24h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 28¢ $1 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $5 25h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $2 26h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $2 26h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 12¢ $1 27h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 31¢ $2 27h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 98¢ $5 41h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 31¢ $2 42h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 84¢ $4 42h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 66¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.69 · official $2.58 (match) · 641 history records