Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf102…b355 crypto 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$947 (+4%) realized +$1,387 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate72%146W / 58L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$1,346
other 7% −$440
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 204 +1.2% -8.5% 72% 43% -4.3%
all 204 +1.2% -8.5% 72% 43% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 43% -4.3%
10% -17.2% 20% -13.5%
15% -25.2% 14% -21.9%
20% -32.6% 14% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$52 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,355
Realized+$1,387
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses146 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)204 / 207
History coverage75d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1,383 $1,039 −$343 (-25%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $301 $219 −$82 (-27%)
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $111 $97 −$14 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 23 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 23 $950 +$249 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 23 $106 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 23 $94 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 23 $82 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 23 $73 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 23 $68 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 23 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 23 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 23 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 23 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 23 $149 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 23 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 22 $1,793 +$308 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 22 $929 −$188 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 22 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 22 $54 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 22 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 22 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 22 $131 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 22 $117 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 22 $106 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 22 $83 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 22 $75 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 22 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 22 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 21 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 20 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 20 $69 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 20 $66 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $59 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 20 $54 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 20 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 20 $123 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 20 $112 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 20 $104 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 20 $89 +$18 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26m
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 5¢ $59 1h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $291 14h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 25h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 26h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 30h
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 30h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 30h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 32h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $131 34h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $71 39h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 46h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 46h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $94 3d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,355.47 · official $1,355.47 (match) · 760 history records