Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0f9…8739 weather 706 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,614 (+1%) realized +$1,598 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%652W / 50L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$360
14 days+$621
30 days+$563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$1,179
other 6% +$429
world 0% +$8
crypto 0% −$98
sports 0% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +9.3% -1.1% 88% 3% -6.8%
≤30d 347 +6.4% -3.7% 92% 3% -8.6%
≤90d 697 +10.3% -0.2% 93% 7% -8.5%
all 702 +9.9% -0.6% 93% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 7% -8.5%
10% -10.1% 5% -17.3%
15% -18.8% 4% -25.3%
20% -26.8% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,148
Realized+$1,598
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses652 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)702 / 706
History coverage116d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 702 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $881 $895 +$14 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $149 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals Jun 20 $64 $0 +0%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ goals Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $400 +$10 +2%
Álex Arce: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Yunus Akgün: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals Jun 20 $61 +$1 +1%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 20 $43 +$7 +16%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ruben Providence: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Rayan: 1+ goals Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Éderson: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Ross Stewart: 1+ goals Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals Jun 20 $78 $0 +0%
Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves Jun 19 $0 $0 -3%
Mathew Leckie: 1+ goals Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Paul Izzo: 3+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $225 +$2 +1%
Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Craig Gordon: 3+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Paul Izzo: 4+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Chris Brady: 2+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Paul Izzo: 2+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $0 $0 -47%
Josué Duverger: 3+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Josué Duverger: 2+ saves Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Luis Romo: 2+ goals Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Cyle Larin: 2+ goals Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ goals Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 99¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $35 3h
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $72 4h
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $149 4h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $22 4h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 4h
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $94 5h
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $100 5h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $69 5h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $148 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $148 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $101 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $188 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $36 6h
Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves SELL Yes $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,148.02 · official $1,148.02 (match) · 1726 history records