Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f8…325f weather 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,256 (-5%) realized −$8,257 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%142W / 12L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,017per market
Trades / day103.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,111
7 days−$12,729
14 days−$8,897
30 days−$8,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% +$2,954
world 24% −$9,855
tech 2% +$1,060
finance 2% −$3,267
other 2% +$536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.3% -21.6% 74% 11% -29.2%
≤30d 154 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 4% -14.1%
≤90d 154 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 4% -14.1%
all 154 -1.1% -10.5% 92% 4% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 4% -14.1%
10% -19.1% 3% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 1% -29.8%
20% -34.0% 1% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,151) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$1,296 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$3,258
Realized−$8,257
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses142 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)154 / 170
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,017
Trades / day103.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $735 $738 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $441 $453 +$12 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $394 $401 +$7 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $404 $401 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $263 $260 −$4 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? No 99¢ 92¢ $233 $217 −$16 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $170 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $141 $144 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? No 98¢ 97¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $264 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $600 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $481 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $421 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3,164 +$61 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $26,380 −$2,283 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10,429 −$8,914 -86%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,030 +$555 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3,070 +$596 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $106 −$92 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $501 −$501 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $3,462 −$2,765 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $897 +$67 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4,766 +$415 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2,699 +$107 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1,305 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $719 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $179 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 08 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 08 $799 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 08 $371 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1,088 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $188 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $331 +$8 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,266 +$313 +25%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2,621 +$223 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,935 +$54 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5,685 +$191 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,032 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $182 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $816 +$67 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $895 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $451 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $334 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,151 +$31 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,402 +$26 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,154 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 04 $938 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 04 $1,582 +$30 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 04 $436 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $803 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,512 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 03 $227 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $36 9m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $264 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $269 11m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 12m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $48 14m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $26 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $104 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $105 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $55 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $160 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $79 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $170 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 33m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $99 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $426 35m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $126 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $13 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $125 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $11 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,257.72 · official $3,245.82 (match) · 2185 history records